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Top 14 tips: Week 9
Betting
Written by Ryan Nevaplus   
Friday, 21 October 2011

Our tipsters have been quietly picking up points and pounds while everyone else has been watching the World Cup. How will they fare now the Top 14 is fully in the spotlight?

A third treble in four weeks for Jacques Hughes means he's already well on the way to his most lucrative season for years, but it's the points sur les portes that matter in the long run and a 5-all score last week means Barry Mutuel stays eight points behind going into week 9. There'll be one less point up for grabs this week too after Bordeaux-Begles vs Lyon was called off after les Loups picked up a dose of the mumps.

The tips are based on Bet365's handicap tips for each week's Top 14 matches. Our tipsters will pick the winner of each game based on Bet365's head-starts, and nominate three games to put their hard-earned euros on. One of these three will be their banker - the Nap.

For every tip they get right, they get a point, with double points for the Nap. But if they get the Nap wrong, they lose two points. We've borrowed Napoleon's hat from Eric & Ernie to show you what the Naps are on the chart below.

Right, down to business - here are this week's handicaps - as set by Bet365.com - and our tips:

Top 14, Week 9 (handicap winners in bold)
Barry Mutuel (23+1pts)
Jacques Hughes (31+4pts)
Castres -10 vs Racing-Metro +10 (19-23)
Castres Nap Racing-MetroNap
Bayonne -7 vs Perpignan +7 (18-16)
Bayonne
Perpignan
Clermont -18 vs Biarritz +18 (41-0)
Clermont
Clermont
Toulon -17 vs Brive +17 (18-3)
Toulon
Toulon
Toulouse -14 vs Stade Francais +14 (18-15)
Stade Francais
Toulouse
Agen -6 vs Montpellier +6 (18-12)
Montpellier Montpellier
Bordeaux-Begles vs Lyon postponed N/A N/A


Barry's bets

Castres
-10 vs Racing-Metro, Clermont -18 vs Biarritz, Toulon -17 vs Brive

The majority of French rugby followers are expecting the Castres bubble to burst any time soon. It's easy to put their hot streak down to a favourable fixture list, as well as their rivals being weakened more by RWC call-ups. That's not the case. They've been improving over the last few seasons and are now a force to be reckoned with. They'll encounter little resistance from a Racing-Metro outfit that's lost five of its eight games so far. Add to the mix a weak looking Parisien line-up for the game and this one’s got comfortable home win written all over it.

The ‘capper has obviously been on the Oldarki if he thinks that Biarritz are going to keep this one within eighteen points. At times during every recent Top 14 season Clermont go on a run that sees them as hot as a freshly plated croque monsieur. Well, they’re at it again. Tomorrow they face the men from the Pays Basque who are descending to new lows on a weekly basis. When they get the likes of Yachvili, Harinordoquy and Traille back from RWC duty they’ll improve, although runs of good form don’t begin away at Clermont.

Don’t be mistaken by Brive’s lofty sixth place position in the league table. They’ve lost five of their first eight games and have won only one game more than bottom-but-one Bayonne. They’re no great shakes sur la route either, and that will be emphasised tomorrow when they come against a consistent Toulon side bolstered by some RWC returnees. The Stade Mayol will, as ever, be bouncing tomorrow and I fancy Mourad’s men to turn on the style in front of their own. Toulon to take it by 20 and treat us to a treble.

Jacques backs...
Racing-Metro +10 vs Castres, Toulon -17 vs Brive, Perpignan +7 vs Bayonne

Castres have really taken advantage of other teams' World Cup absentees, their week 1 defeat to Perpignan (of all people) being the only blot on their 2011/12 campaign to date. Racing-Metro have already lost five matches but only once - at home to Clermont - have they failed to pick up a bonus point. That 10-point head start is too tempting for me to ignore - take les Franciliens to come away with one point and me to pick up two for another successful Nap.

Brive travel to Stade Mayol on the back of two comfortable wins over the Basque basement boys, and while their form this season has surpassed expectations, they will come unstuck against play-off contenders Toulon. Biarritz, Perpignan and Stade Francais have already been on the end of 25-point-plus defeats on la Rade, and I don't expect Brive to make the long journey back north with much more than the salty sea breeze in their hair.

Perpignan have had a torrid fortnight, their 38-point fanny at Toulon being followed by an abject 39-3 home defeat to Clermont, which saw the proud catalans booed roundly by the few supporters who stayed to the final whistle. Luckily for them they pay a visit to another club in crisis, Bayonne, this weekend. The sky blue Basques' only consolation at the moment will be the fact that they are above their red and white neighbours in the table, but one win in seven matches speaks for itself. Both clubs will be itching to have their World Cup stars back in action, but for now Bayonne should scrape a tight win, with USAP taking a bonus point home with them.


Guide to Top 14 handicap betting
Remember this is handicap betting, where the bookie has predicted the margin of victory and set the odds for a win to either side to 10/11. This week, Agen are -6 vs Montpellier, so if you back Agen, they have to win by at least 7 points for you to claim your winnings. If you think they'll only win by 5 or will lose altogether, back Montpellier instead. You won't make much taking a bet at 10/11, so it's better to put three or more bets together for an accumulator: if all three come in, your odds multiply so a £1 bet will win around £7 and so on. Of course, if you get one bet wrong, you lose the lot.

 
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