Three of the Top 14's mostly unlikely relegation candidates are facing the drop to Pro D2 after bitterly disappointing seasons. Where did it all go wrong, and can they make it right before the axe falls?

If you'd travelled in time from the summer of 2010 to today, a glance at the bottom of the Top 14 would make surprising reading. Of the five teams propping up the table, two - Biarritz and Perpignan - are recent French champions and a third - Bayonne - seemed to be in the process of building a long-term residency in the top flight.

With fewer than 10 games to go before the axe falls on the bottom two, the three appear to be fighting for their Top 14 lives against slightly less surprising drop candidates Brive and Lyon. So how have the three found themselves in this situation, and what can they do to get themselves out of it?

Brive - currently 10th on 28 points

Plan A: Brive's aim for this season won't have changed since August - just stay up. The funding of maintenance magnate Daniel Derichebourg has dried up and star players like Alexis Palisson, Fabrice Estebanez and Gerard Vosloo all traded up over the summer. But a strong team spirit, passionate coach in Ugo Mola and the bearpit that is Stade Amedée-Domenech would prove to be Brive's strongest suits in the battle to stay up.

Where did it all go wrong? It hasn't really. Brive took nothing out of the first six games other than a shock 28-12 victory at Montpellier, but their home form is proving as strong as ever, with Biarritz, Bayonne, Perpignan and Toulouse all coming unstuck in the Correze. Unfortunately Montpellier, Clermont, Racing and crucially Lyon have all won at Brive.

The bad news for Brive is that those remaining home comforts are now few and far between, with only Castres, Stade Francais, Toulon and Bordeaux yet to visit. Their biggest hope is that their habit of picking up losing bonus points - 8 from 11 to date - will see them stay up.

Huit-pointeurs: The visits of Paris and Bordeaux-Begles will be must-wins for Brive, who have to visit Lyon, Biarritz and Bayonne before the end of March. That game in hand with Les Loups in particular will be vital for both clubs.

Bayonne - 11th on 27 points

Plan A: This was the season that Bayonne would finally make the breakthrough into the top six, the play-offs and a season in the Heineken Cup. New president Michel Cacouault put his money where his mouth was by signing Welsh scrum-half Mike Phillips, All Black legend Joe Rokocoko and Toulouse hero Cedric Heymans.

Where did it all go wrong? Where to start? A week 1 win over Toulouse augured well, but even with the new arrivals, the team was struggling to gel.

Last-minute derby defeat at Biarritz pulled l'Aviron into the relegation dogfight and led ultimately to the departure of Cacouault, who angered supprters and the club's sugar daddy Alain Afflelou by withdrawing a complaint against pitch-invading parent Lucien Harinordoquy. Afflelou installed himself as president and promptly dismissed coaches Christian Gajan and Thomas Lievremont, replacing them with friend and former club coach Jean-Pierre Elissalde.

Six weeks and no wins later, Elissalde was shown the revolving door and former Stade Francais coach Didier Faugeron rolled in. He oversaw the club's first win in seven Top 14 games against his former club that lifted them out of the drop zone - for the moment, but the light blues have struggled to find their feet all season, and even their five wins have seen the losing side take home a bonus point for their troubles.

Huit-pointeurs: Four games in four weeks from March 24 will determine Bayonne's fate: Brive (H), USAP (A), Biarritz (H) and Lyon (A).

Perpignan - 12th on 27 points

Plan A: USAP were unexpectedly poor last season but a new coaching setup and the marquee signing of Wales utility back James Hook were expected to breathe life back into the Catalan outfit.

Where did it all go wrong? Could the 2009 champions be on the verge of the second division? Having won only one of their last 12 league games, it's not looking impossible.

New coach Jacques Delmas lasted barely four months. President Paul Goze gave him the benefit of the doubt while star players Mermoz, Marty, Mas, Tincu and 'Ook were on World Cup duty even as the team fell to a 39-3 home defeat to Clermont. But although the big guns' arrival saw a narrow defeat at Toulouse, the big man wasted no time in swinging the axe when USAP struggled at home to Exter and lost in Newport in the Amlin Cup.

Christophe Manas and Bernard Goutta have taken the reins for the rest of the season, after which Bordeaux-Begles revelation Marc Delpoux will take over. But he may have to do it without listless star man Maxime Mermoz, who is said to be bound for Racing-Metro and who may be taking Jerome Porical with him, or Clermont-bound Damien Chouly.

With so many key players eyeing the Exit door, is it any wonder that Perpignan's last league win came the other side of Christmas?

Huit-pointeurs: While USAP's home form is nothing special - poor travellers Agen and Paris have both won at Aimé-Giral this season - the fact that Biarritz, Bayonne and Lyon all have to visit Perpignan should give them confidence in the fight against the drop. If not, the final-day trip to Bordeaux could be a make-or-break affair.

Biarritz - 13th on 25 points

Plan A: This was always going to be difficult season for the red side of the Pays Basque, with the heart of their first team spending September and October in New Zealand. But last season they started badly and ended up making the play-offs and the H-Cup semi finals - surely these aristocrats of French Rugby could do so again.

Where did it all go wrong? It never went right. Yachvili, Harinordoquy, Traille, Ngwenya, the injured Julien Peyrelongue and the rest proved too hard to replace, even temporarily, and it was six weeks before Biarritz earned their first win, a scrappy 13-11 victory at pre-season relegation candidates Bordeaux-Begles.

It was almost December before les Biarrots enjoyed a second victory, a controversial two-point victory over bitter rivals Bayonne. Despite crashing out of the Heineken Cup soon after, the reds somehow put back-to-back Top 14 wins together including a 25-6 thrashing of Toulon, but although their star-studded team seem to be finding their feet, they can still boast the league's worst points difference and sit uncomfortably in the drop zone.

Remarkably, the coaching team has only seen one change all season, and that was the voluntary departure of director of rugby Patrice Lagisquet to become the new French backs coach. President Serge Blanco, meanwhile, is clearly accepting Serge Milhas and Jack Isaac's assessment that a lack of spirit in the side is to blame for the difficult season.

Huit-pointeurs: Biarritz have to play all four of their relegation rivals before the season is out, starting with a trip to Perpignan this weekend. Harinordoquy pere's one-man pitch invasion could yet come back to haunt them as they serve out Stade Aguilera's one-game ban and take on Bordeaux-Begles at Pau or Dax, but points should be easier to come by when Brive visit Stade Aguilera a week later. If they are still in the merde after that, trips to Lyon and Bayonne will go a long way towards deciding who stays up.

Lyon - 14th on 24 points

Plan A: Lyon had been anticipating promotion from Pro D2 for three years, so were determined to make an impact on their arrival, at the very least by guaranteeing a second year of top-flight rugby.

Where did it all go wrong? Despite the rapid acclimatisation of Toulon and Racing-Metro in recent years, the gap between the first and second tiers is huge even for a big-city club, and Lyon's target will have been no more than 12th place.

Unfortunately injuries to new signing Mark van Gisbergen have kept the former Wasps full back out of the side for long periods, but flanker Juan Manuel Leguizamon has brought his World Cup form to the relegation battle.

Les Loups weren't helped by the fact that their new Stade Matmut home wasn't ready to move into until late September, resulting in a baptism of fire that saw them play four away games in the first five weeks, the exception being a 'home' clash with Toulouse at the city's Stade Gerland football stadium.

The reverse fixtures of those first weeks are now upon us, leaving Lyon with six home ties still to play. Agen, Perpignan and Stade Francais have already fallen at Stade Matmut, and even Clermont were held to a 6-6 draw, so while they are currently the bottom club, there may be hope yet for the easterners.

Huit-pointeurs: Brive, Biarritz, Bordeaux and Bayonne all have to visit Lyon, as do a Racing-Metro in crisis. With away points unlikely, we think Les Loups will have to win three of the five to preserve their top-flight status.

The verdict

Common sense would suggest that the big three are Too Good To Go Down, but their season-long poor form only serves to shove that back in our faces. Biarritz seem to be improving but face tricky trips to Bayonne and Lyon, who themselves host four of the bottom six before the season's out. Perpignan, too, have some semblance of home advantage to look forward to while Bayonne will need to beat both Brive and Biarritz at Stade Jean-Dauger to have any hope of staying up. Brive themselves will have to beat poor travellers Paris and Bordeaux before tackling three away eight-pointers.

Bearing all that in mind, we're tipping Biarritz to climb to safety long before season's end, with Lyon's home run earning them a second term in the top flight. Brive will have to rely on losing bonus points to keep them above the parapet, which leaveseither  Bayonne and Perpignan staring into the abyss.

Or does it?

The one team that appears safe at the moment, 11 points above the drop zone, is Bordeaux-Begles. Five years ago a seemingly safe Agen picked up just two points from their final seven games and slipped into the relegation zone on the last weekend of the season. Bordeaux could find themselves in the same situation: they still have to travel to Brive, Lyon and Biarritz, and their remaining home games hold few opportunities for victory as they host top-sizers Toulouse and Montpellier visiting before Agen come to town. If Agen win that one, it could all come down to the final day clash at home to Perpignan, the new team of outgoing coach Marc Delpoux.

So you want a decision rather than waffle? Then adieu, Brive and Bordeaux-Begles.